🧾 Switzerland’s Favorite Trick: Accidentally Making Money

The Confederation's books are better than expected. Again. Everyone pretends to be surprised. Again.

2 mars 2026

The Swiss federal government just closed its 2025 accounts with a CHF259M surplus. The budget had penciled in a CHF815M deficit. That’s a CHF1.1B swing to the upside, or CHF1.6B if you strip out the extraordinary items. Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter went in front of the cameras to explain, with a very serious face, that this was actually bad news. Or at least not good news. Or at least not the kind of good news that should make anyone relax.

I love this country.

Look, most of the improvement comes from a one-off: Geneva’s corporate tax billing got weird, and CHF1.5B in federal tax receipts landed earlier than expected. Temporary. Not structural. Fine. But here’s the thing that kills me: this keeps happening. Every single year, the budget says « deficit, » and the accounts say « surprise, surplus. » The left (represented here by Tamara Funiciello, PS) points this out with the exasperation of someone who’s been making the same argument at every budget session for a decade. « We fight over a few million in December, then two months later, oh look, extra revenue! » She’s not wrong. The right (Yvan Pahud, UDC) fires back that without Geneva’s timing glitch, you’d have a deficit, so actually the sky is still falling and please pass the austerity package. He’s also not wrong, technically, in the way that someone who ignores a 12-year pattern to focus on one data point can be technically not wrong.

And then there’s the PLR’s Damien Cottier, who calmly notes that the average gap between budget forecasts and actual results from 2012 to 2024 is 0.1%. Which, I mean, try running that number past literally any other government on Earth. The US budget projections are basically astrology with Excel. France hasn’t submitted a clean budget to Brussels since (I want to say the Sarkozy era? Maybe Chirac? Does it matter?). Meanwhile Switzerland is off by 0.1% over 12 years and the parliament treats it like a constitutional crisis. The debt brake, which has been in place for 20 years, is apparently so effective that the big news is « ordinary spending came in slightly above forecast for the first time ever. » First time. In two decades. Keller-Sutter presented this like it was a five-alarm fire. Elsewhere, that’s a Tuesday.

The budget relief package (PAB27) is still grinding through parliament. The Council of States already killed CHF900M in proposed cuts. The National Council debates it in March. The left is threatening a referendum. The projected deficit for 2027 is now CHF400M, which in Swiss terms is an emergency and in Italian terms is a rounding error. The whole thing will probably get sorted out through some combination of minor adjustments, cantonal negotiations, and the quiet competence of institutions that don’t need a crisis to function. Nobody will write a think piece about it. No one will call it a « Swiss miracle. » The accounts will close. The surplus will appear. Keller-Sutter will say it’s temporary. And we’ll do this again next year.

Have a great week!

M. Hantale 🧀

🧾 Switzerland's Favorite Trick: Accidentally Making Money
Week’s Headlines

🇨🇭Diplomacy. The United States has concluded discussions in Geneva with Ukraine on reconstruction and long-term cooperation, ahead of an upcoming round of talks with Russia in Abu Dhabi in March.
🇫🇷 Defence. Two French ships are joining the European military mission in the Red Sea to secure maritime traffic threatened by regional tensions.
🇪🇺 Conflict. France, Germany and the United Kingdom avoid any condemnation following the Israeli-American offensive against Iran, merely calling for regional stability.
🇪🇺 Trade. The economy ministers of the German-speaking countries are calling for strengthened cooperation and European economic resilience in the face of geopolitical tensions.
🇮🇷 Conflict. Ayatollah Khamenei and around forty Iranian officials were killed in American-Israeli strikes, triggering retaliations and deadly regional chaos.
🇮🇷 Transition. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a provisional council will oversee the leadership of Iran pending an election.

Economy & Finance

🇨🇭 Construction. The Swiss construction sector grew by 2.1% in 2025 to reach CHF 23.9 billion, driven by ongoing demand for housing.
🇨🇭 Growth. The Swiss economy rebounded by 0.2% in the 4th quarter of 2025, supported by domestic demand despite weak exports.
🇫🇷 Inflation. Harmonised inflation in France accelerates to 1.1% year-on-year in February, significantly exceeding market expectations.
🇩🇪 Unemployment. The number of unemployed in Germany increased by 1K in February, reaching 2.98M, against a backdrop of economic stagnation.
🇪🇺 Trade. The EU is considering the creation of a « virtual state » to simplify the establishment of businesses on the continent, as national barriers still equate to 44% customs duties on goods and 100% on services.
🇪🇺 Central bank. The ECB limits its loss to €1.25 billion in 2025, down from €7.9 billion last year, but no dividend will be paid for several years.
🇪🇺 Defence. European governments could see their debt rise by 18 percentage points of GDP by 2035, due to military pressure and geopolitical tensions.
🇪🇺 Switzerland-EU Agreements. The 27 EU states approve the signing of a new package of agreements with Switzerland, scheduled for next month in Brussels.
🇪🇺 Trade. The EU-Mercosur agreement will enter into provisional effect without waiting for the vote of the European Parliament, despite the opposition from several member states.
🇺🇸 Deficit. The IMF estimates that the current account deficit of the United States remains too high and recommends reducing the budget deficit to address this.
🇺🇸 Unemployment. Weekly unemployment claims rose to 212K last week, signalling a slight slowdown in the US labour market.
🌍 Trade. Services now account for nearly 25% of international trade, but their growth is facing an increase in invisible regulatory barriers.

Switzerland

🇮🇱 Air security. SWISS has cancelled all its flights to Tel Aviv and Dubai this weekend due to the closure of several airspaces following the military escalation in the Middle East.
🇨🇭 Diplomacy. Around 200 protesters demanded the fall of the Iranian regime outside the Iranian embassy in Bern, waving portraits of Reza Pahlavi and monarchist flags.
🇨🇭 Politics. The discreet visit of former minister Pascal Broulis to the Grand Council has rekindled tensions surrounding the tax shield, highlighting the discomfort and lack of transparency within the PLR.
🇨🇭 Politics. The canton of Bern, home to the Swiss Parliament, is experiencing a decline in its economic weight compared to the rest of the country, reigniting the debate on political decentralisation.
🇨🇭 Energy. Switzerland will completely ban the import of Russian LNG from 25 April 2026, following the 19th package of EU sanctions.
🇨🇭 Defence. The modernisation of Swiss military telecommunications, estimated at CHF 1.92 billion, is experiencing delays and risks of cost overruns, according to the Federal Audit Office.
🇨🇭 Justice. 687MCHF linked to associates of Nicolás Maduro have been frozen in Swiss banks, in accordance with legislation on the illicit assets of politically exposed persons.
🇨🇭 Justice. Lawyers criticise the disproportionate procedure of hearing the 150 members of the Vaud Grand Council by the Public Prosecutor’s Office, following a case of breach of professional secrecy.
🇨🇭 Justice. The election of the Attorney General of Geneva pits Olivier Jornot, in office for 14 years, against Pierre Bayenet, supported by the left, but political parties are struggling to present clear positions just weeks before the vote on 29 March.
🇨🇭 Crans-Montana. The Swiss government will pay 50K CHF to each victim or bereaved family of the fire, for a total of 7.8M CHF.
🇨🇭 Taxation. The Swiss will vote on 8 March on individual taxation, which would end the tax penalty on marriage by introducing a separate declaration for each taxpayer.
🇨🇭 WEF. Borge Brende resigns as president of the World Economic Forum following the revelation of his links to Jeffrey Epstein, and Alois Zwinggi is serving as interim.
🇨🇭 Agriculture. More than 137K signatures have been submitted in Bern to demand a national vote on the protection of Swiss food against GMOs.
🇨🇭 Technology. The Federal Council has postponed the launch of the e-ID to 1 December 2026, following a critical report from the Federal Audit Office.
🇨🇭 Tourism. Swiss hospitality records a high of 43.9M overnight stays in 2025, driven by the influx of foreign visitors and consistently strong local demand.
🇨🇭 Sport. Lausanne-Sport eliminated 2-1 by Olomouc in the Conference League, there is now no Swiss team left in European football competitions this season.
🐕 Science. A Swiss study reveals that human selection has profoundly altered the brains of dogs, particularly the regions related to social behaviour, compared to wolves.

Elsewhere in the World

🇮🇹 Accident. A tram derailed in Milan and crashed into a building, resulting in one death and around twenty serious injuries.
🇸🇪 Security. A suspicious drone was neutralised 10km from the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, currently docked in Malmö, without disrupting the ship’s operations.
🇩🇰 Politics. Denmark calls a general election amid tensions with the United States regarding Greenland’s sovereignty.
🇬🇧 Borders. Travellers in transit or on short stays in the United Kingdom must now obtain an ETA, a procedure inspired by the US ESTA and soon by the European ETIAS.
🇺🇸 Security. A shooting in a bar in Austin has left 2 dead and 14 injured, with the FBI mentioning a possible terrorist dimension following the neutralisation of the shooter.
🇺🇸 Severe Weather. New York has declared a state of emergency and banned travel following a historic snowstorm, paralysing the city and causing thousands of flight cancellations.
🇧🇷 Severe Weather. Record rains in Juiz de Fora and Uba have caused the death of at least 30 people and left 39 missing, forcing 3,000 residents to flee their homes.
🇧🇴 Accident. A military plane carrying banknotes crashed in El Alto, resulting in the death of at least 20 people and scenes of looting.
🇵🇰 Security. Pakistan and Afghanistan have exchanged strikes in their capitals, with the Pakistani minister mentioning an “open war” between the two countries.
🇰🇪 Security. Six people, including an MP, lost their lives in a helicopter crash in Mosop, 300 km from Nairobi.

Markets

🇨🇭 Insurance. Swiss Re reports a net profit of $4.8 billion, significantly exceeding its 2025 targets despite high provisions in the American market.
🇨🇭 Pharma. Sandoz reports a 7% increase in its revenue to 8.6 billion CHF in 2025, driven by the growth of biosimilars and its European investments.
🇨🇭 Watches. Swatch Group challenges the brand ranking published by Morgan Stanley, denouncing questionable methodology and biased conclusions.
🇨🇭 Nuclear. The shutdown of the Gösgen reactor is expected to continue to weigh on Alpiq’s results until 2026, following a direct impact of 149M CHF in 2025.
🇨🇭 Pharma. Galenica will close its Bichsel subsidiary by the end of 2024, resulting in the loss of up to 170 jobs due to a lack of competitiveness.
🇨🇭 Stock Market. The SMI index has surpassed 14,000 points for the first time, driven by the strength of defensive stocks and the appeal of Swiss companies, despite global volatility.
🇩🇪 M&A. The Swiss company storabble acquires the German on-storage, strengthening its position in a still highly fragmented European storage market.
🇺🇸 Bank. UBS forecasts a default rate of up to 15% by 2028 if AI causes significant disruption among borrowing companies.
🇺🇸 Bank. US authorities have labelled the Swiss bank MBaer a major threat for money laundering and want to ban it from accessing the US financial system.

SMI Index

Name	Price	Mkt Cap	7d Chg	YTD
Roche	367.00	291.99B	▼ -0.92%	▲ +12.75%
Novartis	130.50	249.01B	▲ +1.97%	▲ +20.28%
Nestlé	83.98	216.02B	▲ +3.17%	▲ +9.86%
ABB	71.82	130.52B	▲ +2.89%	▲ +17.28%
UBS	32.01	98.97B	▼ -0.53%	▼ -16.14%
Zurich Insurance	580.60	83.60B	▲ +0.90%	▼ -3.17%
Swiss Re	135.95	39.98B	▲ +5.39%	▲ +4.46%
Holcim	70.88	39.06B	▼ -3.54%	▼ -9.29%
Lonza	536.20	37.61B	▲ +3.00%	▲ +0.11%
Swisscom	721.50	37.38B	▲ +0.77%	▲ +24.61%
Alcon	66.86	32.59B	▲ +4.83%	▲ +5.23%
Givaudan	3,092.00	28.54B	▲ +1.24%	▼ -0.45%
Sika	159.50	25.59B	▲ +2.28%	▼ -2.57%
Swiss Life	881.40	25.15B	▲ +1.40%	▼ -5.45%
Partners Group	857.40	22.24B	▲ +0.87%	▼ -16.76%
Geberit	648.00	21.36B	▲ +0.40%	▲ +5.19%
SGS	97.00	18.73B	▲ +2.97%	▲ +4.30%
Straumann	92.60	14.77B	▲ +0.98%	▼ -1.80%
Julius Bär	65.60	13.44B	▲ +1.64%	▼ -0.27%
Logitech	70.84	10.40B	▲ +2.55%	▼ -10.87%

📅 Data as of 2026-03-02 08:37

Forex CHF

Pair	Rate	7d Chg	YTD
EUR/CHF	0.90	▼ -0.92%	▼ -2.77%
USD/CHF	0.77	▲ +0.04%	▼ -2.53%
GBP/CHF	1.03	▼ -1.18%	▼ -3.29%

📅 Data as of 2026-03-02 08:37

Basement Talks

Washington’s Favorite Middlemen

Here’s the thing about American power: it doesn’t work without logistics. The US can sanction anyone, blockade any port, topple any government it wants. But when it comes time to actually move the oil, ship the copper, and stock the reserve, it picks up the phone and calls Geneva.

$12B. That’s the price tag on Project Vault, the Trump administration’s new strategic critical minerals reserve announced February 2. A $10B EXIM Bank loan plus $2B in private capital, designed to stockpile all 60 minerals on the US Geological Survey’s critical list and shield American manufacturers from supply shocks. The stated enemy is China, which controls roughly 70% of rare earth mining and over 90% of processing capacity. The unstated dependency is Switzerland. Mercuria, the Geneva trader that keeps adding zeros to its metals division, is a named supplier. The commodities houses tapped to procure minerals for the stockpile? Hartree, Mercuria, Traxys. Two out of three are Swiss. Washington imported 80% of its rare earths in 2024. It plans to fix that by routing even more volume through the Lac Léman corridor.

The Venezuela play makes it even more explicit. After the US captured Maduro in January, Trump needed someone to drain the 30 to 50 million barrels sitting in overstuffed PDVSA tanks and floating storage. ExxonMobil’s CEO called the country « uninvestable » at a White House meeting on January 9. So who got the export licenses? Trafigura and Vitol, both Geneva residents, alongside Chevron. The first sale: $500M. Venezuelan exports jumped from 498,000 barrels per day in December to 800,000 bpd in January. US banks won’t touch the financing. Doesn’t matter. Swiss traders are sitting on years of accumulated profits. Vitol alone posted $8.7B net in 2024, more than its four closest rivals combined. Cash solves compliance anxiety.

The symmetry is almost too neat. America needs metals in, hydrocarbons out. Swiss traders handle both directions. Glencore, fresh off paying $1B to settle US corruption charges in 2022, just signed a deal with American firm Orion around its Congo copper mines. Mercuria’s co-director Daniel Jaeggi was in the Oval Office in November. Trafigura’s Richard Holtum followed in January. MSC’s Diego Aponte has met Trump multiple times and is positioned to take over two Panama Canal ports. These are not discreet courtesy visits. They are deal tables. Switzerland controls roughly 35% of global oil trading, 60% of metals, and the sector accounts for close to 10% of Swiss GDP. The country that famously has no natural resources has made itself indispensable to the country that has all of them.

What makes this arrangement durable is that neither side is pretending it’s about values. Trump doesn’t care that Glencore pleaded guilty to corruption in Africa. The Swiss don’t care that Washington is effectively running Venezuela’s oil ministry by remote control. The EU would need three directorates, a regulatory impact assessment, and eighteen months of consultation to approve a single minerals procurement framework. By then China has already locked up the supply. Switzerland just sends a trader with a term sheet and a tanker. Pragmatism, compounding quietly, while everyone else writes white papers.

And that’s the point. The most important commodity relationship in the world right now doesn’t run through Houston or Shanghai or London. It runs through a handful of offices on the shores of Lake Geneva, staffed by people whose names most Americans will never know, executing deals their government can’t do without. Switzerland didn’t ask for a seat at the table. It built the table. Should have charged rent.