🧳 Leave, Then

A bank whose balance sheet is 150% of national GDP does not get to negotiate like a sports franchise threatening to move cities.

Helvetica newsletter archive of 26 October 2026

UBS would like everyone to know it owns a suitcase. American suitors are calling and two shareholders are volunteering to help pack. Last month the Swiss upper house voted that UBS must back its foreign subsidiaries with 90% top-quality equity, against 60% today, partly in cheaper paper. (In 2017 FINMA, Switzerland's financial regulator, let Credit Suisse value its own foreign units generously. That went well.) The bank puts the extra bill at about $16B, roughly $33B in total since it swallowed Credit Suisse, and calls it excessive. Sure. It is a lot of money. It is also far less than the $50B-plus of UBS risk Switzerland took onto public books in 2008. (The central bank later made money on it. Nobody knew that in October 2008.) UBS's $1.7T balance sheet is 1.5 times Swiss GDP. A company that size does not have a home country. It has a hostage.

(The letters UBS have officially stood for nothing since the 1998 merger retired the name Union Bank of Switzerland. At the time it was branding. In hindsight it reads like a prenup.) The same murmurs about moving abroad went round in 2009, while the bailout money was still warm. And Cevian, the Swedish activist fund now urging the exit, said in early 2025 that Switzerland was good for UBS and UBS good for Switzerland. Then the government published its capital bill, and by September leaving had become the only realistic option. Switzerland, apparently, stops being good for UBS the day it asks for a receipt.

UBS is playing poker at a table with nobody to bluff (I find this delightful, which says something about my evenings). Washington rewrites capital rules with every new president; Brussels negotiates them for a decade, then dilutes them. Switzerland sends the bill to a lower house committee on 26 October, where the left wants 100%. If parliament softens it, 50,000 signatures put the law to a national vote. A referendum can't write a tougher law, but it can kill a soft one, with the electorate on record against UBS. Polls favour the tougher rules. You can charm 46 senators over lunch. You cannot buy lunch for 5.6M voters.

Look, maybe the Americans are serious. Fine. Picture the destination: a bank worth $155B on the stock market, next to Morgan Stanley at $280B, trading a predictable regulator for a friendlier one that may not survive the next election. In Zurich, UBS is the country's financial identity. In New York, it would be PaineWebber (the US broker it bought in 2000) with a nice accent. The Swiss business, the part nobody in New York is calling about, stays here either way. The new rules phase in over 7 years. Credit Suisse died over a weekend.

Have a great week! M. Hantale 🧀

Read the analysis

🇧🇷 Policy. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins a fourth presidential term following a spectacular political comeback, whilst Jair Bolsonaro refuses to acknowledge his defeat.
🇷🇸 Policy. After two years of mobilisation, Serbian youth claim victory for democracy in the legislative elections and the defeat of Aleksandar Vučić.
🇦🇪 Security. Swiss extends until 25 November 2026 the suspension of its flights to Dubai, originally scheduled to resume on 27 October, due to the uncertain situation in the Middle East.
🇭🇳 Policy. María Corina Machado, 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, announces her return to Venezuela after nearly a year in exile in Panama.

Economy & Finance

🇯🇵 Inflation. Japan's inflation excluding fresh produce accelerated to 2.1% year-on-year in September, exceeding the Bank of Japan's target for the first time in nine months.
🇩🇪 Jobs. German industry lost nearly 500K salaried jobs between 2019 and 2025, a decline of 7.1%, whilst services created more than 2.2M.
🇨🇭 Trade. Swiss exports rose by 2.6% in the third quarter, to nearly 75bn CHF, despite a decline in sales to the United States, offset by European demand.
🇨🇭 Tax. Geneva's tax authority is urging vigilance against fraudulent messages impersonating its identity and requesting banking details under the pretext of tax refunds.
🇫🇷 Deficit. France's ten-year borrowing rate exceeds 5%, a high not seen since 2002, amid doubts concerning the country's budgetary trajectory.
🇨🇭 Industry. Energie 360° brings together Energie 360°, Gofast, Swisscharge and Move Mobility under the JOYA brand to become a major player in electric vehicle charging in Switzerland.
🇩🇪 Industry. fal.ai launches FLUX 3 Max with Black Forest Labs, a video model presented as 22 times faster than Sora 2.5, with a 10-second clip generated in 12.45 seconds versus 277.8 seconds.
🇪🇺 Consumption. Consumer confidence in the eurozone declined by 1.1 points in October, to -17.9, weighed down by the persistence of the energy shock linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
🇺🇸 Consumer confidence. American household confidence fell to its lowest level in five months in October, with the University of Michigan index declining to 48 from 48.1 in September, driven by rising prices and interest rates.
🇨🇭 Investment. Raiffeisen Bank International's venture capital fund takes a stake in Zurich-based fintech Rivero to accelerate its expansion in Central and Eastern Europe.
🇨🇭 Investment. Basel-based biotech Nouscom raises €120M in an oversubscribed funding round to advance an anti-cancer immunotherapy towards clinical trials.
🇨🇭 Currencies. The Swiss franc is regaining its safe-haven status amid euro weakness, with the exchange rate falling from nearly 0.95 to below 0.92 CHF in just a few weeks.
🇫🇷 Rating. Moody's maintains France's rating at Aa3, but retains a negative outlook and calls for a "significant and sustained" budgetary effort to stabilise debt.
🇺🇸🇨🇦 Trade. The United States will reduce tariffs by 50% as of 30 October on certain Canadian products, notably plywood, paper and industrial equipment, whilst raising them on others.

Switzerland

🇨🇭 Justice. The Zurich parliament approves the creation of an international commercial court, integrated into the High Court and competent for cross-border commercial disputes.
🇨🇭 Security. From 1 November onwards, airline companies will be required to transmit detailed passenger data to the competent national authority, whilst Schengen data exchanges will be harmonised.
🇨🇭 Real Estate. One Swiss household in six devotes more than a third of its gross income to housing, a proportion that reaches 22% among tenants.
🇨🇭 Mobility. SWISS will serve Toulouse twice weekly this summer from Zurich and will bring the number of its destinations departing from the city to 95, whilst Edelweiss will increase its long-haul flights.
🇨🇭 Mobility. The Gotthard and San Bernardino passes are closing earlier than expected due to the first snowfalls and winter conditions.
🇨🇭 Innovation. The Confederation is launching a tender that could reach 7 billion CHF to renew cloud services for the administration, cantons and municipalities.
🇨🇭 Climate. Nearly 9,600 fish, including 6,500 trout, were rescued and relocated in the Jura following the drought that affected 16 kilometres of watercourse this summer.
🇨🇭 Science. The European Hera probe has arrived near asteroid Dimorphos to analyse the effects of the DART mission's impact, with the participation of researchers from the University of Bern.
🇨🇭 Science. Researchers at ETH Zurich are testing a drone equipped with radar to measure glacier movements and better anticipate landslides and alpine rockfalls.
🇨🇭 Appointment. The 1890 Foundation, which brings together Servette's football, ice hockey and rugby teams, will change president on 31 December, with Grégoire Pictet stepping down from his position for professional reasons.

Elsewhere in the World

🇨🇦 Policy. Quebec's new separatist government excludes the representative of King Charles III from its swearing-in ceremony, marking the first official break with a monarchical tradition.
🇷🇴 Government. After five months of political deadlock, the Romanian Parliament invested the pro-European government of Luca Niculescu with 280 votes out of 233 required.
🇭🇺 Justice. György Matolcsy, former governor of Hungary's central bank and close ally of Viktor Orbán, has been placed in detention in an investigation into embezzlement of funds and fraud.
🇺🇸 Justice. A lawsuit accuses Donald Trump and World Liberty Financial of illegally profiting from cryptocurrency-related transactions for over $2bn.
🇪🇨 Justice. Luisa González, the main political rival of President Daniel Noboa, has been arrested in an investigation into possible money laundering linked to the financing of her 2023 campaign.
🇪🇺 Conflict. The European Parliament is calling on the Twenty-Seven to deploy a naval mission in the Black Sea following a series of drone attacks against seven commercial vessels, which have resulted in two deaths and 28 missing persons.
🇮🇱 Conflict. Israel plans to close all crossing points to the West Bank on 27 October, the day of legislative elections, following an attack that killed two soldiers.
🇫🇷 Security. An attack in the Yvelines has left one dead and five injured, whilst the main suspect's custody has been extended in a counter-terrorism investigation.
🇦🇺 Security. Hit outside her electoral office, independent MP Helen Haines had to have both legs amputated, reigniting the debate over political violence in Australia.
🇯🇴 Security. A shooting at a Greek Orthodox church in Hamoud, in southern Jordan, killed 7 people and wounded 40 during a funeral service.
🇳🇪 Security. A 69-year-old Swiss woman and an Austrian woman have been released after spending 18 and 21 months respectively in captivity in Niger. They have been transferred to Benghazi, Libya.
🇮🇹 Protests. Italy is being shaken by two distinct mobilisations, with clashes between students and police in the north and road and port blockades in the south, causing shortages in petrol stations and supermarkets.
🇻🇪 Protests. Thousands of Venezuelans demonstrated in several cities to demand free elections and an electoral timetable, after nearly two years without national opposition mobilisation.
🇨🇴 Disasters. A collapse in an illegal gold mine has killed 14 people and injured seven in south-west Colombia, an area controlled by armed groups.
🇨🇳 Disasters. An earthquake of magnitude 7 struck Tibet, causing buildings to collapse and disrupting electricity and telecommunications, whilst casualties were reported without a confirmed death toll.

🇨🇭 Food & Beverage. Nestlé accelerates in the third quarter, with sales up 4% on a comparable basis, despite the non-consolidation of its activities placed under external administration in Russia.
🇨🇭 Industry. Schindler raises its targets for 2026 after nine months of growth, driven by an operating margin that has risen to 13.5%, compared with 12.5% a year earlier.
🇨🇭 Stock Market. FINMA authorises the first Swiss ETF directly invested in bitcoin and publicly listed, opening access to cryptocurrencies to a broader range of investors.
🇨🇭 M&A. Roche acquires worldwide rights, excluding Chinese territories, to a portfolio of antibody-drug conjugates from Chinese firm Hansoh Pharma for $510m.
🇨🇭 M&A. Zurich-based group DKSH acquires Newbridge Pharmaceuticals for $390m and expands its healthcare activities in the Middle East and North Africa. The target, active in 14 countries, specialises in treatments for rare and complex diseases.
🇨🇭 M&A. ABB will invest $495M to acquire a 51% stake in a joint venture with Mitsubishi Electric, with completion expected in 2027 and an option for full acquisition in the medium term.
🇨🇭 Innovation. Zurich-based start-up Enact Intelligence emerges from stealth mode with a funding round of €26.68m, one of the largest pre-seed rounds ever raised in Europe, backed notably by Yann LeCun and Arthur Mensch.
🇨🇭 Innovation. Comet sees its revenue surge by 51.9% to 155.6m CHF in the third quarter, driven by the recovery in semiconductor demand.

SMI Index

Name	Price	Mkt Cap	7d Chg	YTD
Roche	384.60	316.63B	-	▲ +15.4%
Novartis	128.00	243.29B	▲ +1.2%	▲ +18.0%
Nestlé	83.70	215.29B	▲ +0.7%	▲ +9.5%
ABB	67.78	122.46B	▼ -4.5%	▲ +10.7%
UBS	38.32	117.33B	▼ -2.0%	▲ +0.4%
Zurich Insurance	618.40	92.37B	▼ -0.2%	▲ +3.1%
Swiss Re	154.45	45.55B	▲ +1.4%	▲ +18.7%
Lonza	631.80	44.13B	▲ +1.1%	▲ +18.0%
Holcim	66.80	36.95B	▲ +2.9%	▼ -14.5%
Givaudan	3,993.00	36.86B	▲ +0.8%	▲ +28.6%
Swisscom	684.50	35.46B	▲ +2.2%	▲ +18.2%
Sika	180.20	28.91B	▼ -2.3%	▲ +10.1%
Alcon	57.94	28.01B	▲ +3.9%	▼ -8.8%
Swiss Life	929.60	25.98B	▲ +0.0%	▼ -0.3%
SGS	102.75	20.32B	▲ +3.8%	▲ +10.5%
Geberit	564.20	18.26B	▲ +1.2%	▼ -8.4%
Partners Group	626.00	16.14B	▲ +2.4%	▼ -39.2%
Straumann	98.88	15.77B	▲ +5.6%	▲ +4.9%
Julius Bär	67.72	13.93B	▼ -2.6%	▲ +3.0%
Logitech	91.36	13.12B	▲ +2.7%	▲ +14.9%

📅 Data as of 2026-10-26 07:46

Forex CHF

Pair	Rate	7d Chg	YTD
EUR/CHF	0.92	▼ -0.34%	▼ -0.74%
USD/CHF	0.82	▼ -0.19%	▲ +4.05%
GBP/CHF	1.10	▼ -0.11%	▲ +3.35%

📅 Data as of 2026-10-26 07:46

The Wrist Was Never for Rent

The newest bull case for Swiss watches fits on a finger. Oura, a Finnish-born, San Francisco-based maker of sleep-tracking rings, filed for a Nasdaq listing in early September, aiming at a valuation of up to $15.6B, then shelved the $2.2B offering days before pricing. No new date. The theory survived the retreat: bankers move their sleep score from an Apple Watch to a titanium ring, the left wrist comes free, and Geneva's watchmakers move back in. The bet assumes they ever left.

Apple did take wrists, the cheap ones. Switzerland repriced the rest. Swiss factories shipped 14.6M wristwatches in 2025, 43% fewer than in 2016, yet their value rose 34% to CHF24.4B. Average export price: CHF1,672, up 133%. A rout in units, a triumph in francs. And the survey figure behind the ring theory, 26% of consumers still wearing a traditional watch, counts only people who wear nothing else. A fund manager with a Rolex on one wrist and a tracker on the other drops out of the statistic.

This year, growth came from the wrong end for the ring theory. Through September, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, the Biel trade body that publishes the customs tally, counted 11.1M wristwatches exported, up 5.5%, while value rose 2.8%. Units outran francs. In September alone, watches under CHF500 at export jumped 39.5%. Watches above CHF3,000, the bankers' segment the ring was meant to rescue, rose 9.9%, below the market's 11.7%.

Part of the rebound is arithmetic, and the arithmetic has an author. Shipments to America rose 85.7% in September against a base Washington had flattened a year earlier with a 39% tariff. No Apple keynote ever cost Swiss watchmakers half their American shipments in a single month. The tariff did, last November. Bern, the federal government, bought the rate down to 15% with investment pledges, and the industry closed 2025 down just 1.7%.

For an investor, the useful line runs between a lease and an asset. Oura pitched Wall Street a membership business, yet $974M of its $1.21B in nine-month revenue came from rings the next model will make obsolete. A Swiss watch sits on the other side of the ledger: bought once, insured, resold, inherited. A tracker rents its spot on the body. A watch holds the deed. Oura's chief executive says the company can afford to pick its moment. Patek Philippe, owned by the Stern family since 1932, never needed Nasdaq to pick one.

Silicon Valley's latest gadget arrived to rescue an industry that had already chosen its ground. Switzerland handed the bottom of the wrist market to Apple a decade ago, kept the top floors above CHF3,000, and is now moving back into the ground floor in steel. Nobody vacated anything. An incumbent that decides which customers it can afford to lose does not need a disruptor to give them back.

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