💸 Dollar Doom Loopers, Meet Cheese
When boring is a feature, not a bug, for global money.
There’s a fashionable thesis about whether the dollar is finished. The argument runs roughly: 57% of global reserves is too much power for one country, especially one whose policymaking is, let’s be honest, currently a vibe. So we should diversify. To what? The euro, which is held together by Brussels press releases and the threat of a Greek crisis we all agreed to forget about. The renminbi, which has capital controls so tight that holding it is basically holding a promise. The yen, which has been sad for 30 years. The pound, which, let’s not.
The fashionable framing calls this a « doom loop »: a dollar-dominated system that wreaks periodic havoc, or a fragmented system that wreaks continuous havoc. Pick your poison. Cheerful stuff.
Sure. But notice what the doom-loop people accidentally describe as the exit ramp: countries with better macro policies, deeper financial markets, stronger institutions, less need for reserves because they’re not panic-prone. I mean, that’s a country. That’s an entire functioning country, and it exists. It’s about three hours from Frankfurt by train, it speaks four languages on purpose, and it has cheese.
Switzerland’s gross public debt is about 40% of GDP. The US is at roughly 120%. The eurozone average is around 88%. The Swiss franc quadrupled its share of global reserves to 0.8% in Q1 2025, which sounds tiny until you notice that’s the highest level since the euro was invented. The dollar fell 11% against the franc in H1 2025, its worst first-half performance against CHF in more than a decade. The SNB sits on roughly CHF710B in currency reserves and just posted a CHF26.1B profit for 2025. Nobody in Bern called a press conference about this. Nobody wrote a triumphant op-ed. The Swiss did not, as far as I can tell, even tweet.
The way out of dollar dominance is not a new dominant currency. It’s not gold, it’s not bitcoin, it’s not SDRs (which are not a currency, they are an IOU backed by other IOUs, please stop trying to make this work). It is the boring infrastructure that makes any currency trustworthy: a debt brake voted into the constitution, in force since 2003. Federal referendums four times a year, where citizens routinely vote to make their own lives slightly less convenient because they think it’s the right call. A central bank that does not get phoned by the president. Cantonal autonomy so granular your tax rate depends on which valley you live in. None of this scales easily. None of it is exportable. None of it makes for a good campaign slogan. Which is why, when global investors decide they want some, they don’t copy it. They just buy francs.
Pick your poison. Or don’t.
M. Hantale 🧀
- 🇮🇷 Diplomacy. According to Washington, a US-Iran technical working group will be held in Switzerland on 29-30 June, but Iranian authorities deny having concluded agreements or begun nuclear negotiations.
- 🇮🇪 Diplomacy. Ireland takes over the presidency of the EU Council and will steer reforms of the single market and « Made in Europe » rules until the end of 2027, decisions that could restrict access and define Switzerland’s place as a « like-minded » partner.
- 🇨🇭 Diplomacy. Faced with federal finances constraints, the 2029–2032 strategy prioritises emergency aid for major crises, plans workforce reductions and a withdrawal from Latin America, with consultation until spring 2028.
- 🇺🇸 Trade. Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on exports to European states that would levy a tax on digital services, even threatening to suspend any trade agreement recently finalised.
- 🇨🇭 Energy. Switzerland’s Senate energy committee approves the Switzerland-EU electricity agreement by 6 votes to 4, with 3 abstentions, paving the way for examination in the autumn session and bringing Swiss operators closer to the European electricity market.
Economy & Finance
- 🇪🇺 Inflation. Isabel Schnabel (ECB) warns of a risk of inflation rising despite a peace agreement, which could complicate the monetary normalisation trajectory.
- 🇺🇸 Inflation. The PCE price index rose 4.1% year-on-year in May, at the fastest pace in over three years, whilst inflation-adjusted consumption advanced 0.3% for the month.
- 🇨🇭 Growth. The IMF deems the Swiss economy resilient and forecasts growth of 0.8% in 2026 then 1.5% in 2027, driven by domestic demand, rates close to 0% and wage increases.
- 🇨🇭 Employment. The median salary of full-time workers in Switzerland reached CHF87K in 2025, compared with CHF81.5K in 2024 according to the Sake survey.
- 🇪🇺 Trade. The 27 Member States have approved the agreement with the United States which removes tariffs on most industrial and agricultural products, allowing it to come into force before the 4 July deadline.
- 🇨🇭 Taxation. The Federal Council proposes an increase in VAT of 0.5% (instead of the 0.8% planned) to finance defence, a measure that would be applied for 12 years and whose revenues would go entirely to military expenditure.
- 🇨🇭 Budget. The Federal Council rules out further cuts for 2027 following a revenue increase of 1.8bn CHF, but maintains the planned austerity programme 2027–2029 of 5.2bn CHF.
- 🇫🇷 Deficit. The Court of Auditors deems the government’s target of a 5% deficit as a share of GDP this year « far from guaranteed » and warns of increased vulnerability to market fluctuations.
- 🇨🇭 Industry. Average emissions from new cars fell by ~11% to 101.6 g CO2/km in 2025, but failure to meet targets for cars and light commercial vehicles resulted in nearly 125m CHF in fines for importers.
- 🇮🇩 Raw materials. Switzerland has signed a memorandum of understanding with Indonesia to facilitate access to critical minerals and metals, in return for a Swiss commitment to promote investments in Indonesia.
- 🇮🇹 Investment. Italian investors via Vam Investments are launching the Chaumont Group in Neuchâtel to bring together highly specialised watchmaking subcontractors, aiming for expansion to 10 to 12 companies.
Switzerland
- 🇨🇭 Politics. The Federal Council has authorised the canton of Lucerne to test electronic voting for its approximately 7,000 foreign voters from the ballot on 27 September, with authorisation valid until 26 November 2028.
- 🇨🇭 Politics. The Federal Council is providing 200 million Swiss francs to Switzerland’s candidacy file for the 2038 Winter Olympics, but refuses to submit this financial support to a referendum despite requests from the left and the UDC.
- 🇨🇭 Defence. The army has paid 500 million Swiss francs in advance to the United States for the purchase of F-35A aircraft and assures that all payments scheduled for 2026 have already been made.
- 🇨🇭 Security. For the first time, Switzerland’s Intelligence Service has deemed Russia « the most serious and acute threat » to Switzerland, assessing that the security situation has significantly deteriorated.
- 🇨🇭 Health. A study by Unisanté shows that older men and fish consumers present the highest blood PFAS levels, whilst women and vegetarian people are the least contaminated.
- 🇨🇭 Immigration. The EU/EFTA migration balance falls to 50.9k in 2025, declining compared to the previous 3 years.
- 🇨🇭 Energy. The two reactors at Beznau, cooled by the Aare, were taken offline after the river reached 25°C, making cooling insufficient.
- 🇨🇭 Innovation. An AI simulator developed by the Grisons University of Applied Sciences analyses skiers’ aerodynamic position and enables them to optimise their posture in real time.
- 🇨🇭 Climate. Record heat across the country: 19 stations broke their all-time records this weekend, with peaks of 39°C at Binningen and Beznau, and the heatwave is expected to end on Monday with a cold front.
- 🇨🇭 Culture. Art Basel attracted 90,000 visitors at its 56th edition, with organisers reporting excellent sales across all sectors.
- 🇨🇭 Sport. Steffi Häberlin wins the Swiss cycling championship in Courtételle, the hottest event in history with 38°C recorded and over 40°C felt temperature.
- 🇨🇭 Sport. Switzerland finishes first in the group and qualifies for the round of 32 following its 2-1 victory against host nation Canada in Vancouver. Round of 32 match on Thursday 2 July in Vancouver.
- 🇨🇭 Crans-Montana. The Constellation will never reopen as a bar, announces Christophe Darbellay, who wishes for the site to be reassigned for young people following the fire on 1 January that killed 41 people and injured 115.
Elsewhere in the World
- 🇦🇷 Politics. Manuel Adorni resigns from his position as chief of staff to Javier Milei, forced out by an investigation into illicit enrichment and mounting public scandal.
- 🇷🇸 Elections. Aleksandar Vučić announces he will step down from the presidency in « a few weeks » and is expected to trigger early legislative elections where he would run as the SNS’s lead candidate to become possible prime minister.
- 🇬🇧 Government. Andy Burnham promises a « No 10 North » to transfer powers to the regions and launches a « 10-year mission » to raise living standards, whilst assuring that he will respect the fiscal rules in force if he becomes Prime Minister on 20 July.
- 🇪🇸 Justice. The former aide to the Spanish government chief has been sentenced to 24 years in prison for corruption.
- 🇭🇺 Justice. The Hungarian Parliament has adopted an anti-corruption package of laws aimed at unlocking nearly €20bn in frozen European aid, the measure eliminating « privatstiftungen » and strengthening asset declarations.
- 🇺🇸 Justice. Former Trump adviser John Bolton pleaded guilty to one count of unlawful retention of classified documents, faces up to 5 years in prison and must pay $2.25M, with debriefing to authorities and 100 hours of community service.
- 🇳🇪 Justice. Niger, led by the junta, has officially notified its withdrawal from the ICC, a request that will take effect on 18/06/2027, one year after receipt of the notification.
- 🇷🇺 Conflict. Following repeated Ukrainian attacks on refineries, Putin acknowledges a fuel shortage in almost all regions, convenes a crisis meeting and calls upon reserves whilst a possible diesel export embargo is being considered.
- 🇲🇲 Conflict. The UN notes that at least 702 civilians were killed by the Burmese military between August and January during the electoral period, more than half in air strikes.
- 🇺🇦 Diplomacy. Kyiv has submitted a revised version of its application to the OECD and hopes to obtain candidate country status by autumn, with the next step being the establishment of a roadmap towards membership.
- 🇻🇪 Catastrophes. The death toll from earthquakes in Venezuela exceeds 1,400 and search operations continue in the hardest-hit coastal areas, notably La Guaira and sectors of Caracas.
- 🇨🇭 Banking. Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter defends full capital coverage of UBS’s foreign subsidiaries to guarantee stability, rejecting options to ease requirements that would bring the CET1 requirement down to 70–80% and would cost ~CHF12.1bn instead of the ~CHF20bn planned.
- 🇨🇭 Food and beverage. Reitzel, the gherkin specialist from Aigle, posted record revenue of 122.9m CHF in 2025, up 1.1% despite a challenging international environment.
- 🇨🇭 Watchmaking. Swatch is claiming $170M in counterfeiting damages from Samsung for 26 digital watch faces downloaded 160k times in the UK and the EU between October 2015 and February 2019, with London courts to set the amount.
- 🇦🇹 Transport. Stadler🇨🇭 purchases a 50 hectare industrial site in Leopoldsdorf near Vienna and formalises its Austrian establishment to develop its existing workshop opening in March 2026.
- 🇨🇭 Distribution. Migros is opening an « autonomous store » on 2 July in Vieusseux (Geneva) that will remain accessible on Sundays without staff to circumvent the ban on Sunday employment.
- 🇨🇭 Stock market. The SMI reached a new record by surpassing 14,000 pts, peaking at 14,142 pts and closing at 14,118 pts after a rise of 1.49%, driven by Nestlé, Roche and Novartis.
SMI Index
| Name | Price | Mkt Cap | 7d Chg | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roche | 343.20 | 273.06B | ▲ +5.9% | ▲ +6.4% |
| Novartis | 125.56 | 239.12B | ▲ +1.7% | ▲ +19.2% |
| Nestlé | 83.60 | 214.57B | ▲ +4.2% | ▲ +13.8% |
| ABB | 84.72 | 153.69B | ▼ -1.6% | ▲ +40.4% |
| UBS | 39.92 | 130.88B | ▼ -2.4% | ▲ +8.1% |
| Zurich Insurance | 588.20 | 87.95B | ▲ +0.6% | ▲ +3.5% |
| Holcim | 74.70 | 41.42B | ▼ -1.5% | ▼ -2.1% |
| Swiss Re | 127.60 | 37.69B | ▲ +2.1% | ▲ +4.3% |
| Lonza | 538.60 | 37.62B | ▲ +4.5% | ▲ +1.6% |
| Swisscom | 637.00 | 32.92B | ▼ -0.2% | ▲ +14.3% |
| Givaudan | 3,372.00 | 31.07B | ▲ +2.9% | ▲ +11.6% |
| Alcon | 54.98 | 26.83B | ▲ +3.2% | ▼ -13.1% |
| Sika | 166.25 | 26.73B | ▲ +3.2% | ▲ +4.5% |
| Swiss Life | 882.00 | 24.66B | ▼ -0.5% | ▼ -1.3% |
| SGS | 93.60 | 18.50B | ▲ +3.5% | ▲ +4.5% |
| Geberit | 541.40 | 17.87B | ▲ +4.2% | ▼ -10.0% |
| Straumann | 106.65 | 17.03B | ▲ +3.9% | ▲ +14.4% |
| Partners Group | 651.40 | 16.74B | ▼ -0.4% | ▼ -33.4% |
| Julius Bär | 68.16 | 14.08B | ▲ +3.1% | ▲ +8.1% |
| Logitech | 79.66 | 11.42B | ▼ -6.1% | ▲ +0.2% |
📅 Data as of 2026-06-29 09:53
Forex CHF
| Pair | Rate | 7d Chg | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/CHF | 0.92 | ▼ -0.16% | ▼ -0.85% |
| USD/CHF | 0.81 | ▲ 0.00% | ▲ +2.12% |
| GBP/CHF | 1.07 | ▼ -0.19% | ▲ +0.21% |
📅 Data as of 2026-06-29 09:53
What Brexit Actually Taught About Sovereignty
The popular reading of Brexit is that Britain made an emotional choice and paid an economic price. Tidy, moralising, slightly wrong. The more useful reading is mechanical. Britain ran a real experiment in what sovereignty costs when a mid-sized open economy detaches from its largest market, and the experiment returned a number. The Bank of England puts it at roughly 6% of GDP. Not a crash. A permanent downshift, the kind that does not announce itself and never reverses.
That number is the part worth carrying into the Swiss debate, because around 2028 the bilaterals III package goes to the people, and the campaign against it will be built almost entirely on sovereignty. Brussels dictates, Switzerland obeys, autonomy erodes. All true in the narrow sense. The covered sectors do involve aligning with rules written elsewhere. The question Brexit answers is what the alternative actually buys.
Start with the constraint nobody votes on. 51% of Swiss exports go to the EU. That figure does not soften because Bern resents Brussels, and it does not care which way a referendum goes. A small economy that sells half its output into a single neighbouring market is dependent on that market whether or not it signs anything. The choice is never dependence versus independence. It is dependence with negotiated access, or dependence with friction added on top. Britain picked the second and discovered that friction has a price, payable annually, forever.
Here the British case gets genuinely instructive rather than merely cautionary. Sovereignty was reclaimed in full. Borders, rulebook, trade policy, all returned to Westminster. And the thing voters wanted turned out to behave like a luxury good. Ten years on, six in ten Britons call leaving a mistake, fifty-five percent want back in, and the same electorate now polls Nigel Farage into the lead. People want the divorce reversed and the old opt-outs restored at the same time, which is less hypocrisy than confusion about what was ever on offer. Sovereignty was never free. It just sent the invoice later.
So the Swiss vote is not really a referendum on principle. It is a referendum on which set of costs to pay, with one set already itemised by a neighbour who ran the trial. Alignment in the covered sectors is a real loss of room to manoeuvre, and pretending otherwise insults the voter. But a small exporter operating in the hardest international climate since the Soviet collapse, with tariffs back as an instrument of policy, does not get the option of zero cost. It gets to choose which bill, and how visible.
That is the unglamorous insight, and the reason this looks like surrender to people who mistake volume for strength. The loud move was Britain’s. The quiet one is reading the receipts first.