🧳 Jurisdiction Tourism
Predictability a regulator can revise in July, effective August, is a mood, not a policy.
The itinerary went like this. Leave Singapore around 2024 because compliance is tedious and onboarding takes months. Try Dubai for the tax. Try Tokyo, where a weak yen made everything from flats to handbags feel like a sale (nobody appears to have costed the Japanese lessons). Try Hong Kong for proximity. Then discover that Hong Kong’s proximity is to Beijing and that Dubai sits in a region with a war problem. Which, I mean, is not risk management. That’s reading. So the money is phoning Singapore lawyers about residency again, Chinese enquiries for luxury property there are up 35% in the first half, and the industry calls it a flight to safety rather than a round trip that ended where it started, minus fees.
Safety, meaning predictability. Singapore’s monetary authority loosened some single-family office conditions in July, effective 1 August. Helpful. Also revealing: what one office relaxes on a month’s notice, the same office tightens on a month’s notice, asking nobody. The Swiss version is slower, duller, and not the regulator’s to grant. Foreigners living in Switzerland without working can be taxed on what they spend, not what they earn. In 2014 citizens forced a national vote to scrap that and lost, 59.2%, in every canton but Schaffhausen (there are 26, each sovereign over its own tax code). People who will never qualify voted to keep it for people who do. No finance minister can undo that with a press release.
Sure, and the cantons had already been killing it locally. Zurich went first, February 2009, then Basel-City, Basel-Land, Appenzell Ausserrhoden. Most of them stayed and paid ordinary tax. The ones who left drove to Schwyz, a low-tax canton 40 minutes down the lake. The exit is internal, which is either a scandal or the entire design depending on where you pay. The count fell from 5,634 in 2012 to 3,478 in 2022, a 38% decline Switzerland inflicted on itself and never once called a strategic repositioning.
And Hong Kong is winning anyway. It booked $2,950B of cross-border wealth last year against Switzerland’s $2,940B, ahead for the first time, and the Asian hubs are forecast to compound near 9% a year to 2030. Switzerland, 6%. Fine. Except Hong Kong’s lead is one country’s money, so concentrated that whether it counts as cross-border at all is a fair question. The Swiss book still spreads across Europe, the Middle East and Latin America. The families now asking Singapore about citizenship want somewhere that won’t change its mind about them. In Switzerland that answer doesn’t come from a regulator. Valais, an Alpine canton full of them, gave it in 2014: 78.3% against abolition. Nobody has asked since.
M. Hantale 🧀
- 🇮🇷 Conflict. Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell to around 5 vessels per day this weekend, compared with 130–140 before the war, with shipowners fearing attacks.
- 🇺🇸 Energy. Donald Trump announces an oil deal with Venezuela giving the United States majority control of more than 65bn barrels, described by him as the « greatest in world history » and intended to lower petrol prices without costing taxpayers.
- 🇮🇸 Diplomacy. Icelanders rejected the resumption of EU accession negotiations, with the « no » vote prevailing at 52.8% against 47.2%, dealing a blow to the government.
- 🇨🇠Climate. The hottest and driest summer ever recorded in Switzerland, rainfall at 54% of normal and areas such as the Jura falling to 45%, whilst glacier melt maintains water levels locally.
- 🇨🇠Economy. Swiss growth reached 1.6% in 2025, above SECO’s estimate of 1.4%, with upward revisions for 2024 (1.5%) and 2023 (1.0%).
Economy & Finance
- 🇫🇷 Inflation. Inflation reached 2.4% in August compared with 2.1% in July, according to INSEE, with the annual increase driven mainly by energy (+16.7%) and petroleum products.
- 🇺🇸 Inflation. The PCE index, the Fed’s preferred measure, rose 3.7% year-on-year in July, unchanged from June, with core inflation remaining at 3.3% and monthly prices climbing 0.2%.
- 🇫🇷 Growth. French GDP stagnated in Q2 at 0.0%, revised downwards from +0.2% in the initial estimate, complicating the target of +0.7% for the year.
- 🇨🇠Taxation. Wealth managers are calling for a postponement of the beneficial ownership register launch scheduled for 1 October 2026, arguing that centralising data on over 500K entities creates an attractive target following the Liechtenstein data breach.
- 🇩🇪 Budget. Berlin, joined by Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Austria and Sweden, is demanding cuts of several hundred billion euros and a refocusing of the future budget on security, defence, competitiveness and migration.
- 🇫🇷 Deficit. Investors now regard France as the main European sovereign risk: 10-year OAT yields exceeded those of Italy over the summer whilst France’s debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to 117% compared with 139% for Italy and the public deficit exceeds 5% of GDP.
- 🇩🇪 Deficit. Germany crosses the symbolic threshold of 3.1% of GDP in the first half, exceeding the Maastricht limit after several years of meeting the criteria.
- 🇬🇧 Deficit. The rise in yields since the start of the war in Iran has increased the borrowing bill for G7 countries by $16bn to date and could reach $34bn if the trend continues.
- 🇨🇠Industry. The SBB posted a profit of CHF126M in the first half, compared with CHF48M a year earlier, driven by a rebound in passenger traffic and real estate.
- 🇫🇷 Investment. Thomas Buberl left the WEF foundation board in August, where he had sat since 2020, with no stated reason, the board now comprising 27 members.
- 🇪🇺 Investment. Ursula von der Leyen warns that around 10,000bn€ of household savings are lying idle in deposits and is pressing Europe to channel them towards its businesses, a plan that could unlock up to 470bn€ in additional investments by an agreement hoped for before the end of the year.
- 🇺🇸 Investment. Private equity managers are extending their positions by multiplying « squared continuation funds » due to difficulty finding buyers at desired prices, $75bn raised in continuation in 2024 of which $14.6bn for these complex vehicles.
Switzerland
- 🇨🇠Politics. From 2 November, Swiss authorities and diplomatic missions will issue a new biometric identity card equipped with a chip containing a facial photograph and two fingerprints, with the amended ordinance coming into force on 1 November.
- 🇨🇠Diplomacy. The historic Mercier estate, 700m² set within a 4,000m² heritage-listed park, is being offered for 15.5 million Swiss francs following the Iranian mission’s decision to leave Geneva, deeming the premises unsuitable.
- 🇨🇠Defence. From 2028 onwards, the army will establish a drone battalion for reconnaissance and defence and will open a specialised recruit training school.
- 🇨🇠Energy. Switzerland ranks 5th in Europe for renewable electricity production per capita in 2025 (4,872 kWh), driven by hydroelectricity and strong solar growth (record of 878 kWh/capita), whilst wind power lags behind.
- 🇨🇠Energy. Suppliers announce an average fall in electricity tariffs in 2027, with Romande Energie mentioning −6% from January, but prices remain higher than their pre-2022 energy crisis levels.
- 🇨🇠Mobility. Vini launches a daily Bern–Munich offer and a « Make It Fly » programme allowing passengers to propose new destinations that will be integrated if demand warrants it.
- 🇨🇠Mobility. Zurich Airport improved its summer punctuality with 56% of departures in July delayed by less than 15 minutes and 66% on average since the beginning of the year, whilst SWISS remained stuck at 59% of punctual flights.
- 🇨🇠Innovation. Switzerland’s mechanical and electrotechnical sector remains resilient despite the Middle East war and US tariffs at 12.5%, with 41% of companies expecting stable orders and more than a third anticipating higher exports.
- 🇨🇠Climate. MeteoSwiss has deployed a deep learning algorithm that, every 5 minutes, analyses radars and lightning strikes to alert in real time to the risk of hail, heavy rain and lightning, reducing false alerts and accelerating warnings.
- 🇨🇠Climate. A large majority of Swiss people are calling for greater protection against heatwaves, with 67% supporting wider use of air conditioning and 69% backing the relaxation of rules for split air conditioning units.
- 🇨🇠Culture. Zoofäscht changes hands: Zurich Zoo will take over in 2028 and will offer a new concept over two days, with a « Zoo Night » on Saturday and a family day on Sunday.
- 🇨🇠Culture. Christopher Nolan’s film The Odyssey has sparked a surge in sales of Homer’s text in Switzerland, with Orell Füssli bookstores reporting increased demand for several editions since the film’s release.
- 🇨🇠Culture. Fribourg’s museum has relocated an iconic taxidermied whale measuring 11m and weighing 1,650kg to its new premises, a 600m operation described as « extraordinary » by the institution.
Elsewhere in the World
- 🇵🇱 Justice. The president of the Polish Olympic Committee Radoslaw Piesiewicz has been arrested in a vast corruption investigation linked to the Zondacrypto platform, suspected of having purchased sponsorship contracts and of having ties with the mafia, nationalist opposition and Russian services.
- 🇺🇸 Justice. The trial of Khalid Cheikh Mohammed, considered the « mastermind » of 9/11, will begin on 5 June 2028 at Guantanamo Bay where he is detained, along with three men accused of the murder of nearly 3,000 people.
- 🇧🇷 Justice. TikTok faces a fine of €25M (153.7M R$) and ByteDance Brasil must delete illegally collected data on minors for « irregularities » in the processing of children and adolescents.
- 🇦🇷 Justice. Two Argentine sports marketing executives admitted before a federal court in New York, as part of the Fifagate scandal, to paying bribes to international football officials, mentioning « tens of M$ ».
- 🇪🇨 Justice. Former president LenÃn Moreno has been sentenced to 5 years in prison for accepting bribes linked to the Coca Codo Sinclair dam, a project worth over $2bn for which Sinohydro allegedly paid $76m in commissions.
- 🇹🇷 Justice. An Istanbul court has sentenced six former opposition mayors to prison for corruption, with the heaviest sentence being 23 years, their supporters denouncing politically motivated trials.
- 🇨🇳 Rights. Artist Gao Zhen has been sentenced to 3 years in prison by a Sanhe court for satirical sculptures of Mao, with the sentence running until 25 August 2027 taking into account his previous detention.
- 🇨🇠Defence. The UN and the ICRC warn: autonomous lethal weapons systems, already deployed, are « dangerously close » to being able to target humans directly and are calling for a binding legal instrument.
- 🇸🇪 Defence. The Swedish armed forces are requesting the expropriation of land held by a man linked to the Russian state near the Muskö naval base, citing the risk posed by drones and the need to prevent any tactical visibility of the site.
- 🇰🇵 Defence. Kim Jong Un has dismissed Defence Minister No Kwang Chol and appointed Kim Son Gi in his place as part of a sweeping reshuffle of the general staff that sees several senior military officials promoted or repositioned.
- 🇫🇷 Security. Following the discovery of a booby-trapped drone near an Antonov in Leipzig on 4 August, France is reassessing its security measures and considering the possibility of more direct and violent attacks on its territory.
- 🇺🇸 Sanctions. Washington is considering imposing an additional 7.5% tariff on Chinese products following an investigation into production overcapacity, a measure that could also affect Switzerland.
- 🇳🇵 Catastrophes. Floods in the Himalayas between Nepal and Tibet are forcing Kathmandu to estimate reconstruction needs at least 4bn$, a figure that could reach 5bn$ according to initial estimates.
- 🇺🇬 Health. The WHO and Africa CDC welcome the end of the Ebola outbreak in Uganda, where 20 cases were confirmed (2 deaths), whilst the epidemic continues and worsens in the DRC.
- 🇩🇰 Startup. Former executives from neobank Lunar have raised €8.2m in pre-seed funding to establish an « AI-native » audit firm aimed at automating and modernising financial controls.
- 🇨🇠Pharma. Lausanne-based biotech Adaptyv Bio raises €34.35M in Series A to develop an automated laboratory for AI-driven protein design.
- 🇨🇠Pharma. Roche via Genentech obtains worldwide rights to HM17321, Hanmi’s anti-obesity drug, for up to $2.3bn including $190m upfront, the deal excludes South Korea.
- 🇨🇠Banking. BCGE achieves a record first half with an operating result of CHF 138m and net profit up approximately 25%, driven by strong demand for mortgage credits.
- 🇨🇠Banking. Swiss legislators must rule today on a compromise of capital rules for UBS, as the government demands ~20bn$ in additional CET1 and less stringent options are being studied.
- 🇨🇠Agribusiness. Syngenta sees its revenue fall by 2% to $12.2bn (9.83bn CHF) in the first half but increases its EBITDA by 2% to $2.4bn, with the margin rising to 19.5% thanks to a refocus on higher-value sales.
- 🇨🇠Transport. Klaus‑Michael Kühne, majority shareholder and former chief executive of Kühne+Nagel, has died aged 89, with his vast fortune estimated at 21‑22 billion Swiss francs set to pass to the Kühne Foundation.
- 🇨🇠Transport. Stadler posts a half-year turnover up 40% to 2GCHF and orders up 60% to 2.7GCHF, with the share climbing on the stock exchange on Wednesday.
- 🇨🇠Technology. Sonova launches the EON range, AI hearing aids equipped with the new Hypersonic chip and a neural network, consuming 37% less energy to deliver devices 25% smaller, 20% lighter and battery life of up to 38 hours.
SMI Index
| Name | Price | Mkt Cap | 7d Chg | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roche | 360.40 | 287.15B | â–¼ -4.0% | â–² +11.7% |
| Novartis | 124.64 | 234.28B | â–¼ -2.9% | â–² +14.9% |
| Nestlé | 78.62 | 202.74B | ▼ -1.5% | ▲ +2.9% |
| ABB | 80.10 | 143.14B | â–² +0.6% | â–² +30.8% |
| UBS | 44.53 | 135.57B | â–² +3.0% | â–² +16.7% |
| Zurich Insurance | 590.80 | 88.52B | â–¼ -0.7% | â–¼ -1.5% |
| Swiss Re | 139.95 | 41.45B | â–¼ -0.4% | â–² +7.5% |
| Lonza | 588.40 | 40.27B | â–¼ -0.9% | â–² +9.9% |
| Holcim | 72.76 | 39.29B | â–² +2.2% | â–¼ -6.9% |
| Swisscom | 626.50 | 32.45B | â–¼ -2.3% | â–² +8.2% |
| Sika | 193.00 | 30.81B | â–² +1.4% | â–² +17.9% |
| Givaudan | 3,274.00 | 30.30B | â–¼ -1.4% | â–² +5.4% |
| Alcon | 57.90 | 28.31B | â–¼ -1.4% | â–¼ -8.9% |
| Swiss Life | 917.80 | 25.68B | â–¼ -0.3% | â–¼ -1.5% |
| Partners Group | 749.40 | 18.89B | â–² +3.2% | â–¼ -27.2% |
| Geberit | 577.80 | 18.45B | â–¼ -0.9% | â–¼ -6.2% |
| SGS | 93.44 | 18.33B | â–¼ -0.0% | â–² +0.5% |
| Julius Bär | 76.06 | 15.48B | ▲ +2.0% | ▲ +15.6% |
| Straumann | 92.18 | 14.97B | â–² +0.7% | â–¼ -2.2% |
| Logitech | 79.20 | 11.37B | â–² +0.8% | â–¼ -0.3% |
📅 Data as of 2026-08-31 20:56
Forex CHF
| Pair | Rate | 7d Chg | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/CHF | 0.94 | â–² +0.29% | â–² +0.87% |
| USD/CHF | 0.81 | â–² +0.95% | â–² +2.18% |
| GBP/CHF | 1.10 | â–² +0.09% | â–² +2.63% |
📅 Data as of 2026-08-31 20:56
The Lucerne Method
A criminal judge in Lucerne, one of 26 cantons that each run their own courts, built a sentencing tool in his own time, calibrated it against sentences already past appeal in drug, theft and fraud cases, and now runs his own through it. Two colleagues use it, as does a judge in another canton. No procurement round, no vendor, no framework directive. The question is not whether a machine should set prison terms. It is why anyone assumes the instrument it replaces was ever calibrated.
Algorithms have no business fixing prison terms. That objection assumes the human baseline is calibrated. Give 246 judges identical descriptions of four offences and the answers scatter. On one burglary, the mildest sentence was a month, the harshest 3.5 years. Even for homicide, two randomly assigned Swiss judges land three years apart on average. A lottery with robes on.
A Wisconsin court leaned on a recidivism score sold by a firm whose model was a trade secret. The defendant asked to see how the number was built. The answer was no. The court upheld the sentence anyway. More than 60 jurisdictions use risk scores in pretrial decisions. An instrument sealed shut, sold with a certificate. The Lucerne method is published, in a legal journal anyone can open. A defendant can attack a method. He cannot attack a licence agreement.
Brussels watched that happen and drew the regulatory conclusion. Judicial AI sits in the high risk annex of the EU’s AI Act, complete with conformity assessments and CE marking. Then the compliance date slid from August 2026 to December 2027. Penalties reach 7% of global turnover. 12 member states missed the deadline to name the authority meant to enforce a law they voted for. Certification rules written before anyone built the instrument, and late even so.
Switzerland signed the Council of Europe’s AI convention in March 2025 and gave its federal departments until year end to draft something sectoral. Meanwhile the tool runs. A retired judge of Switzerland’s highest court and a defence lawyer have attacked it in print. The rape module stays in testing and out of live judgments, the restraint a compliance department documents and a practitioner exercises. And over 90% of Swiss convictions never reach a judge, signed off by prosecutors under a summary procedure built for mass low level offences, objection available. Efficient by design, unexamined by default. The discretion problem is far larger than the bench.
Legal predictability is priced into every contract, every dispute clause, every domicile decision. It gets built the way Switzerland builds most things. A practitioner ships something, colleagues test it in the open, and the rulebook arrives once there is an instrument to regulate. Calibration beats certification. And that is the point.
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